3rd January 2023
How can the ABLP, DNA or UPP win or lose the January 18th General Elections in Antigua-Barbuda?
By Arvel Grant, Political and Current Affairs Analyst.
At the end of the general elections in 2014 and (again) in 2018, this writer observed that, given the scale of its victory over the United Progressive Party UPP (15 to 1 in the House and better than 2 to 1 in popular votes-2018) the Antigua-Barbuda Labor Party (ABLP) might have won 2 general elections on 1 day. To escape unpleasant surprises on elections night, the ABLP and the UPP need to achieve very high supporter turn-out on the day. To avoid a 3rd consecutive thrashing at the hands of labor, the UPP needs to close a near 24% gap, between itself and the ABLP – 37% to 59%.
Alternately, labor needs to maintain its high turn-out, matching or passing 2014 and 2018, denying the UPP the votes it needs to catch-up.
The party needs to avoid supporter-complacency. To win convincingly, it must do what it has done to win 12 of the 15 general elections since adult suffrage in 1951 - Increase its vote count or shed minimal popular support at the upcoming general elections. Furthermore, to remain current, by 2027-2028, Labor must say thanks to some of its stalwart MPs and achieve gender equity in the House of Representatives. For to whom much is given, much is expected.
For the UPP, the hurdles are much higher and operate at 3 levels:
First: The progressives must break the stunning slide in popular support which has been haunting since their high point in 2004, when the UPP polled 21,892 votes and won 12 seats in the House.
A quick look at the Antigua-Barbuda page of the Caribbean Elections Website, will show that: Since those good old days, the UPP has been slipping in popular support: falling to 21,239 and 9 seats in 2009. Collapsing to 17,868 and 3 seats in 2014 and slumping to a dismal 14,440 and 1 seat in 2018.
Second: in turning around its support, the UPP must approach or surpass 21,000 votes, in order to pull-off (at least) a close victory. That means adding about seven thousand new electors to its tally.
That could yield the party, up to 9 or 10 seats. Anything better could be impractical since 6 of the seats which the ABLP currently holds are held at a margin of close to or better than2 to 1.
As things stands, to win 6 seats, the UPP needs to achieve a better than 10% swing away from the ABLP. A 3 to 4% swing is often seen as attainable. More interesting, to win 9 seats, the United Progressive Party needs a better than 15% swing away from Labor- Improbable, but not impossible.
Third: The UPP needs (even at this very late stage) an immigrant-friendly message. Some believe that many immigrants are politically afraid of the party.
If that is so, things need to change quickly - 40% of any labor force includes an irresistible political prize.
Case in point: This writer seems to recall that, leading up to the 2004 General Elections, the UPP promised immigrants from CARICOM (transitioning to citizenship) a residency status equivalent to the US Green Card. Almost 20 years later, that promise is still a “pipe-dream” even though the UPP formed government between 2004 and 2014.
If the United Progressive party cannot achieve these 3 objectives by elections day, the ABLP could be on its way to winning another 2 general elections on January 18th.
For the new and emerging Democratic National Alliance: Amidst all the obstacles placed in its path (by its political frenemies) including the very late-stage departure of almost a quarter of its announced candidates, the party “turned sour grapes into good wine, by successfully nominating its full slate of 16 candidates to run in the upcoming general elections. Impressively, some claim that the DNA may have even improved the pedigree of its’ slate, with the replacement candidates. This is a very new political party, running in only its 2nd general elections. Needless to say, I admire the determination of President Messiah and her colleague candidates, in persisting with their commitment, to change the political order in Antigua-Barbuda – After more than 40 years of political independence, some changes in the nation’s political processes have come due. Only the collective conscience of the electorate know how well the Democratic National Alliance will do. I wish the party very well.
Walk good. Next time I will produce a crude analysis of some recent electoral data to show how the ABLP and or the UPP could win or lose seats.
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